Don’t be afraid of the journey to Diamond Head. You will find it to be a safe and comfortable one.
- Robert Haugen, 2010
17 May 2013
Mises’ Answer to Would-Be Conspirators: You Will Lose – Gary North
The Fed Might Have Painted Itself into a Corner – Mises.org (2009)
Stable Prices, Unstable Markets – Mises.org
FDR: Sowing the Seeds of Chaos – Mises.org
Die versoepeling van het monetaire beleid is zonder voorgaande in de moderne geschiedenis – Trends
Hollande vlucht naar voren – zo lijkt het – Dagelijkse Standaard
Hollande heeft EU-regering geld nodig – Geen Stijl
FSA-hakbar executeert even 11 Assad-mannen – Geen Stijl
APRIL 2013: The making of an ultra-safe global value-oriented investment strategy with potential AUM of +$25 billion (COMING SOON !)
SEPTEMBER 2012: Value and the rest
This study was also published by Dr. Marc Faber as part of his monthly market commentary October 1, 2012.
MUST READ: Dancing on the Grave of the Keynesian System
MUST READ: Let the Euro Die . . . Soon
Welcome to my website. Here you can find more information about my professional competencies organised around four knowledge domains. The first domain covers the knowledge regarding quantitative value investing. Successful value investing requires the use of fundamental (valuation) criteria that are established based on the historical financial statements; the (empirical) knowledge on this subject can be found in Old-school Value Investing: Technique. Secondly value investing requires the effective application of various psychological insights; this knowledge is collected in Old-school Value Investing: Psychology. In a third knowledge domain we find The New Finance, a quantitative investment technology and corresponding perceptions developed by Robert Haugen. Finally the fourth domain deals with the knowledge about the Austrian School of Economics.
Based on these four knowledge areas various unique and quantitative (value) technologies have been developed. The quantitative techniques include:
- a Graham-inspired value investing model focussing on financial strength;
- a Buffett-inspired value investing model focussing on financial and operational strengths;
- a deep value investing model;
- a market valuation model allowing the orientation of investment strategies towards margin-of-safety countries;
- a quantitative model inspired by the concept of a Super Stock portfolio;
- an inductive quantitative model inspired by the insights of The New Finance.
Strategies one to four are part of Old-school Value Investing. Strategies five and six are part of The New Finance. Quantitative technologies one to five can be successfully applied in a robust way in all principal international stock markets. “Successfully” implies an investment horizon of at least (!) five years.
Old-school Value Investing: Technique
- Based on the investment canon of Benjamin Graham.
- A value portfolio is established where:
- each company in the value portfolio has the required fundamental safety margins;
- the safety margins are defined based on the historical financial statements;
- in the screening procedure no forecasts are introduced.
- Investment horizon of at least (!) five years and restricted turnover on an annual basis.
Old-school Value Investing: Psychology
- Benjamin Graham was aware of the fact that a sound psychological attitude vis-à-vis stock price fluctuations is the critical success factor when implementing value strategies. "Intelligent investing is a mental approach."
- We discuss the implications of this important insight regarding the way in which investment processes are structuralised and investment returns of value strategies are assessed. This discussion also is extremely important for investors in value funds.
The New Finance
- Based on the research of Robert Haugen and Nardin Baker.
- Identification of the real determinants of future stock returns, including:
- (fundamental) risk factors;
- fundamental measures of cheapness;
- fundamental measures of profitability;
- technical factors.
- "Super Stocks" are distinguished from "Stupid Stocks".
- Highly dynamic through less dynamic investment strategies are possible.
Austrian School of Economics
- Economic school with Ludwig von Mises being the most principal historical thinker.
- The manipulation of the interest rate by (central) banks implies a market-disturbing operation resulting, among other things, in artificially increased corporate profits.
- In order to prevent economic crises, an end should come to the violation of private property rights in the monetary sphere, mainly existing of the practice of fractional reserve banking and the ever advancing interventions by central banks.
- Socialism is doomed to fail. Already in the year 1920 Mises indicated the impossibility of the central organisation and planning of the economy.
- The school emphasises the role of savers (capitalists) and entrepreneurs in the economy.